What Do Italy Need To Secure Automatic Qualification To The 2026 FIFA World Cup?

After Italy’s dramatic 5-4 win over Israel on Monday, many will be wondering about the World Cup permutations in the European section. 

The Azzurri picked up a priceless three points in Debrecen to keep their hopes of topping Group I on track. As it stands, Norway are top of the pile having won all four of their matches.

And the Scandinavians still hold the advantage over Gennaro Gattuso’s side having won 3-0 in Oslo on MD1. Alexander Sorloth, Antonio Nusa and Erling Haaland scored the goals at the Ullevaal Stadion.

Italy’s 2026 World Cup Qualifying Results

With Italy potentially missing out on hosting Euro 2032 owing to stadia issues, the Azzurri will be desperate to insure their place at next summer’s FIFA World Cup.

Having missed out on the global tournament in 2018 and 2022, the four-time winners were poleaxed 3-0 by Norway in the Group G opener.

Since then, victories over Moldova, Estonia and Israel have put Gennaro Gattuso’s side back on track. However, there is still plenty of work to be done between now and November.

• Israel 4-5 Italy – (09/08/2025)
• Italy 5-0 Estonia (09/05/2025)
• Italy 2-0 Moldova (06/09/2025)
• Norway 3-0 Italy (06/06/2025)

Italy’s Remaining World Cup Qualifying Fixtures

Italy still has four games to play in Group I and taking maximum points across all games is absolutely vital. In October, they will face a double header against Israel and Estonia. Two nations they have scored ten goals against.

The first match against the Estonians will come away from home before taking on the Israelis at the Bluenergy Stadium. In November, the Azzurri will head to Moldova before facing Norway at home three days later.

• Estonia vs Italy (10/11/2025)
• Italy vs Estonia (10/14/2025)
• Moldova vs Italy (11/13/2025)
• Italy vs Norway (11/16/2025)

Italy’s World Cup Permutations

As it stands, Italy occupies second spot in Group I. The Azzurri are three points behind Norway with both nations having played four games.

Having lost 3-0 in Oslo, Gennaro Gattuso’s side has a worse goal difference than the Scandinavians. The Norwegians are currently on +11 with the Italians on +5.

Therefore, if the nations ended up level on points at the end of the group stage and Norway boasts a better goal difference, they will automatically qualify.

However, if Italy wins their remaining four games and the Norwegians slip up against any one of Moldova, Estonia or Israel, Gattuso will have achieved his aim of leading the 2006 winners into the World Cup finals.

Group I Standings After September’s Fixtures

1. Norway – 12 points from 4 matches (+11)
2. Italy – 9 points from 12 matches (+5)
3. Israel – 9 points from 5 matches (+4)
4. Estonia – 3 points from 5 matches (-8)
5. Moldova – 0 points from 4 matches (-12)

Italy’s World Cup Qualifying Permutations

• If Italy wins their remaining four games (including the home tie vs Norway) and Norway drop points against Estonia, Moldova and/or Israel, the Azzurri will win the group.
• If Italy wins their remaining four games (and Norway wins their other three fixtures) goal difference will be used to determine the group winner which would be Norway
• If both Italy and Norway finish level on points but the Azzurri boast a better goal difference, the Azzurri will automatically qualify