Where each Serie A team could finish in the Champions League table ahead of the final league phase matchday

The final Champions League league phase game (matchday 8) takes place on Wednesday night and you can find the permutations for all 36 teams below.

All four Serie A teams – Inter Milan, Juventus, Atalanta, and Napoli – are all in action on Wednesday and they will learn their fates on whether they automatically progress to the round of 16, the playoffs for the next round or dumped out altogether.

Unlike the old group stages, where teams often knew their fate weeks in advance, the new single-league table has kept the pressure on until the very last second.

Every goal scored across the continent on the evening could swing the final standings, determining who bypasses the treacherous playoff round and who heads home early.

With only the top eight guaranteed a spot in the round of 16, and those between ninth and 24th forced into a two-legged playoff, fans of the four Serie A teams can expect a load of twists and turns on the night.

Champions League permutations: A decisive night for the Serie A quartet

All four Italian sides are still in with a chance of progressing to the next round but there’s plenty of tough fixtures that await them on matchday 8.

Inter Milan travel to Germany  to face Borussia Dortmund and their Yellow Wall. Inter sit 14th with 12 points, just one ahead of their hosts. While a playoff spot is safe, Simone Inzaghi knows a win is vital to keep their slim top-eight hopes alive.

Juventus find themselves in a similar boat as they head to the Mediterranean coast to face Monaco. The Bianconeri have won three times in a row in the Champions League, but Monaco, who are sitting in 21st as of matchday 7, are desperate to avoid falling out of the top 24 altogether.

Meanwhile, Atalanta face a tricky trip to Belgium to play Union Saint-Gilloise. Atalanta have 13 points and are one place above Inter, putting them right in the thick of the battle for direct qualification.

Finally, Napoli host Chelsea at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona with Antonio Conte welcoming his former team to Naples. It’s a do or die scenario for Napoli, who currently sit 25th and need a result to leap into the playoffs.

Navigating the Champions League permutations

The path to the knockout stages is far from simple. Based on the current rank distribution data in the graph provided below, the margin for error has evaporated.

Having simulated the matchday 8 fixtures 20,000 times using a supercomputer, the graph below shows the probability distribution of the final League Phase standings.

While some teams have effectively locked in their zones, the four Italian teams are still floating in the playoff zone, with the aim to finish in the top eight green line while finishing in the elimination zone (in red) spells the end of their European campaign.

Atalanta

Gian Piero Gasperini’s men are the best-placed Italian side to book their spot in the top eight. Currently sitting 13th, they’re part of a massive logjam of teams on 13 points.

To secure that top eight spot, they need a convincing win against Union Saint-Gilloise and some favors from results elsewhere. The data suggests their rank distribution is heavily weighted toward the middle of the playoff pack, but a win could propel them as high as sixth or seventh if goal differences swing their way.

Inter Milan

Inter have a lot of work to do if they want to reduce their fixture schedule by avoiding those dreaded February playoffs.

Having lost three Champions League games against big opposition (Atletico Madrid, Arsenal and Liverpool), their momentum has stalled. Sitting 14th, they’re mathematically capable of reaching the top eight, but it requires a win at Dortmund and a series of unlikely collapses from the teams above them.

With that in mind, Inter are more likely to finish between ninth and 16th according to the data above, which would grant them the advantage of playing the second leg at the San Siro next month.

Juventus

Luciano Spalletti has stabilized Juventus after a shaky start, and their three-game winning streak has boosted their morale ahead of the final League Phase matchday.

Like Inter, they sit on 12 points and occupy the 16th spot. Their rank distribution is wide, showing they could finish anywhere from the fringes of the top eight to the lower half of the playoff seeds.

A win in Monaco is the bare minimum required to keep their upward trajectory, anything else and it’ll be curtains for the Old Lady. Given Monaco’s injury crisis, Juve will fancy their chances of bagging the three points needed to improve their standing.

Napoli

For Napoli, the Champions League permutations are much grimmer but equally intense.

They currently sit just outside the safety of the top 24. To avoid a premature exit from Europe, they must secure at least a point against Chelsea, though a win is almost certainly required to be safe from other results.

A win in Naples would see them leapfrog the likes of Olympiacos or PSV but there is a lot to do if they are to progress. It’s a tall order against a in-form Chelsea side, but Conte has built a career on these high-pressure nights.