Inter Milan, Juventus, Napoli and Atalanta’s Champions League Top Eight Chances Revealed

With just one round of the Champions League league phase remaining, there is still everything to play for.

Napoli In Champions League Trouble

This week’s matches saw plenty of twists and turns, with each of Inter Milan, Juventus, Atalanta and Napoli taking a giant stride closer to discovering whether they will progress.

But in a major blow to Italian football at large, no Serie A clubs are currently in the top eight. These spots, of course, will guarantee automatic progression to the knockouts, which begin in March.

Teams that finish from ninth place to 24th after the final fixture will contest a two-legged play-off tie next month, while those in 25th and below will be eliminated from the competition.

The stakes are high, then, and Italy’s representatives still have plenty of work to do. Here, FootItalia takes a closer look at their odds of qualifying and their escapades in Europe so far this season.

Atalanta

Raffaele Palladino’s side are the highest-ranked of the Italian quartet, sitting 13th on 13 points after seven matches.

This is despite their 3-2 defeat by Athletic Club at home on Wednesday night, which saw them collapse despite taking the lead. Marten De Roon later appeared to criticise his ‘immature’ team-mates.

Their final league phase fixture comes at Union Saint-Gilloise. The Belgian outfit are 31st on six points and require a victory, and other results to go their way, just to creep into the top 24.

According to Opta, La Dea hold a 13.42 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. However, their chances of reaching the decisive play-offs stand at 86.58 per cent, suggesting they will qualify barring a major upset.

Inter Milan

Inter have blown both hot and cold in the Champions League and are consequently 14th, with a tally of 12 points.

Last time out, they succumbed to a 3-1 defeat by Arsenal at the San Siro, with Petar Sucic’s first-half equaliser ultimately in vain. Gabriel Jesus, a target for several Italian sides, scored a brace on a rare start.

Their eighth match will see them travel to Borussia Dortmund – a mouthwatering prospect. Even a defeat would not be enough to knock them out, but Cristian Chivu will want a statement win regardless.

This is reflected in Opta’s odds, with their chances of reaching the top eight a meagre 6.31 per cent and of qualifying for the play-offs 93.69 per cent. Just like Atalanta, the latter is a mere formality.

Juventus

Fresh from their impressive 2-0 victory over Jose Mourinho’s Benfica, Juventus propelled themselves up into 15th place. They also have 12 points, albeit with a slightly worse goal difference than Inter.

Luciano Spalletti’s future is uncertain, but off-field matters have not detracted from his superb work at the helm. Sealing them a spot in the Champions League play-offs would be another commendable achievement.

While their top eight chances are 6.75 per cent, their hopes of finishing between ninth and 24th have been estimated at 93.25 per cent. They will end their league phase campaign against Monaco.

Napoli On Brink Of Champions League Knockout

Oh dear, Antonio Conte. Accused of holding his players ‘hostage’ by an agent, the under-fire Italian needs a minor miracle to avoid Napoli crashing out of the tournament at the very first hurdle.

They have taken just eight points from their seven matches to date and drew 1-1 with 10-man Copenhagen on Tuesday. That was despite Scott McTominay handing them the lead before half-time.

The Partenopei will welcome Chelsea in a make-or-break finale and need a win.

Even a draw will likely see them eliminated.

As a result, their top eight chances are mathematically impossible, while their play-off bid is now a 50/50 coin toss.