As the curtain draws on another campaign, the fascinating state of play in Italy means the title race, qualification to Europe and the battle for survival remain up in the air. Find Serie A permutations below, as we unpick some possible scenarios that could transpire before May 25.
Serie A Title Permutations
Inter Milan’s well-documented capitulation came at precisely the wrong moment in their season.
Consecutive 1-0 defeats in the league saw them relinquish a three-point lead in the blink of an eye, and they now find themselves scrambling to catch up with new leaders Napoli, who have established a lead of their own.
Antonio Conte and Gil Azzurri have snatched their chance to move clear with aplomb, although a spirited late comeback from Genoa on matchday 36 saw their lead cut short in, meaning the tantalising prospect of a winner-takes-it-all Serie A playoff is still very much on the cards.
Matchday 37 was suitably chaotic in a fitting penultimate round to an absorbing title race. Just when it looked as if champions Inter were taking a giant leap towards retaining their crown, soon-to-be 38-year-old Lazio veteran Pedro dropped a vintage performance.
His brace — including an injury time penalty to level the scoreline — could prove to be the difference come the end of the season, with Napoli dodging a bullet, having been held to a goalless draw against Parma the same day.
Inter Milan’s season has, of course, largely jumped back on the straight and narrow after a breathless Champions League semi-final victory against Barcelona.
However, they must overcome a sticky trip to Cesc Fabregas’ Como on the final day, who are one of Europe’s most in-form teams after riding a six-game win streak, before drawing against Verona last time out.
Inter’s Final Fixture
- Como vs Inter (25th May)
Napoli’s Final Fixture
- Napoli vs Cagliari (25th May)
Napoli simply have to beat Cagliari on the final day, which they have already done once this season, and they will be crowned champions for only the fourth time in their history.
Should Napoli lose or draw, and Inter win, Simone Inzaghi’s side would snatch the Scudetto in a dramatic final day scenario.
If Napoli were to lose, and Inter draw against Como, fans would be treated to the spectacle of a Serie A title playoff. That is, everyone but Inter and Napoli fans, who will no doubt be hoping to avoid a winner-takes-all game altogether.
Serie A European Qualification Permutations
You are unlikely to find a more captivating European qualification run-in than that of Serie A’s this season.
It is worth noting the finishing spots yield these rewards;
- Champions League: Positions one to four
- Europa League: Fifth place, Coppa Italia winners
- Conference League: Sixth place
Bologna’s historic Coppa Italia final triumph, ending a 51-year wait for silverware in the process, means Vincenzo Italiano’s side have secured qualification to the Europa League at least next season.
It is also worth noting how their placement in the league may affect rivals’ chances of playing on the continent next season.
Had Bologna continued on their path to a European finish, Italy may well have had sevens teams playing in Europe. However, Moise Kean’s late winner for Fiorentina last time out means Bologna may finish outside of the top six, but their Europa League berth remains intact thanks to their cup win.
If results swing their way, however, they could mathematically finish in sixth, handing Italy a seventh European spot.
Napoli, Inter Milan and Atalanta have locked up their Champions League spots for next season, but Juventus, Roma and Lazio could all still claim the fourth and final spot.
Europa Conference League specialists Fiorentina are once again chasing qualification, alongside Bologna and Lazio.
Serie A Relegation Permutations
Much like the top of the table, we could well see a playoff situation unfold at the close of play.
Hellas Verona beat Spezia 3-1 in 2022-23 to avoid dropping down to Serie B, and should 17th and 18th finish level on points, a similar match could be required.
Monza’s relegation back to Serie B, where they spent 40 consecutive seasons before 2022’s promotion, was confirmed on match day 34 after Atalanta put them to the sword with a four-goal drubbing.
From Verona in 15th, all the way down to Venezia, every team has a chance of facing relegation.
There are some hugely important fixtures between now and the end of the season, with Empoli set to face Hellas on the final day.
Parma gave a spirited performance against leaders Napoli to give themselves a fighting chance heading into the season’s climax, but they must dig deep once again with Atalanta on the horizon.
