Overperformer or Underperformer? The Teams Fooling the Serie A Table This Season

As we reach the halfway stage of the season, the table is decidedly narrow; whether it be the race for the title, battling for Europe or scrambling for survival. Serie A xG (Expected Goals) don’t necessarily give us the whole picture, but it lifts the lid on who is underperforming, and teams playing beyond their station.

You’d be hard pushed to find a more thrilling, topsy-turvy campaign than the one unfolding in Italy this season.

Inter Milan continue to consolidate their position at the summit, although reigning champions Napoli snatched points from the leaders in a 2-2 draw last time out to drag them back within reach.

Meanwhile, AC Milan’s troubling bottom-half record means they are tripping up in games they should really be winning, if they are to seriously challenge for the title this season.

Roma, Juventus and even the hugely ambitious Como could all lay claim to the Scudetto should they improve their consistency between now and May, and the underlying stats reveal some interesting conclusions around the clubs on the fringes.

xG, or Expected Goals, is a useful tool to determine where a team could, or should be in the table, according to how many chances they generate, and the quality of those chances.

We have already explored why Cremonese’s worrying underlying stats means they are a ticking time bomb, having generated the least and conceded the most xG this season. This suggestion is already coming to fruition, having been steamrolled 5-0 by Juventus, leaving them winless in six.

Which Teams Are Underperforming on Their xG?

Underperformance in terms of xG is ultimately the failure to convert chance creation into goals.

Juventus had been a prime example of this until they well and truly proved doubters wrong against Cremonese. However, it is true that their pattern of underperforming across this season points to poor shot selection and ultimately, a lack of a reliable finisher.

They moved up to third, albeit temporarily, with that victory, but their underperformance of over three goals means they should be the second-highest scorers in Serie A after Inter.

The most notable example of a team struggling to take their chances, however, is undoubtedly Fiorentina.

La Viola have an xG underperformance of nine. Had they taken those chances, they would have scored as many as Napoli and Milan, and would likely be much further up the table.

Instead, they find themselves still very much under the threat of relegation.

Serie A’s xG Overperformers

It is interesting to note that Inter Milan are Serie A’s biggest overperformers this season, and the only team in the league who are outscoring their xG by more than one.

This positive disparity between actual goals and expected goals is thanks in no small part to Inter’s clinical finishing, which has improved leaps and bounds as the season has wore on. There is, of course, a slice of good luck weaved into the data.

The only other team to have an overperformance of at least one goal is the rapidly evolving Sassuolo, whose quest for a top-half finish in their first season back looks well on track.

How Does Serie A Stack Up in Terms of Expected Points?

The table below shows how much each team are under or overperforming on their Expected Points (xPTS).

Perhaps one of the most interesting conclusions is Juventus being exactly where they should, despite their perceived struggles to finish opponents off and conceding sloppy chances.

Elsewhere near the summit, Napoli and Roma rank among the biggest overperformers in the league, with the former collecting over eight more points than the stats would suggest.

At the other end of the spectrum, Fiorentina are once again Serie A’s biggest underperformer, but that give them cause to be optimistic about their chances of survival, if they can grow into their performances.

With an underperformance of nearly 13 points, the underlying stats suggest Fiorentina could be as high as ninth.