United States vs Paraguay Betting Tips: World Cup 2026 Picks & Best Bets
USA host Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in World Cup 2026 Group D. Home form, a prior 2-1 win over Paraguay, and Pochettino's squad make the US the pick here.
Luca Ferretti
Updated on 11 June 2026
World Cup 2026 Group D, Matchday 2 | Friday, June 12, 2026 | 9:00 PM ET | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles (Inglewood), USA | TV: Fox, Telemundo
What’s At Stake
Group D’s second matchday places enormous pressure on both sides to collect points. The United States, playing on home soil with a nation expecting a deep run, cannot afford to stumble here against a Paraguay side that has returned to the World Cup stage for the first time since 2010. A win for the United States opens a clear path toward the Round of 16; a Paraguay result would immediately complicate the group picture and validate their long journey back to the finals.
Verdict
The United States are the right side to back in this fixture, with home advantage, a more settled squad, and a direct recent victory over Paraguay all pointing in one direction. At -104 with BetOnline, the hosts represent genuine value for a team that dismantled Paraguay 2-1 in a November 2025 friendly on this very turf and carries the added fuel of a packed SoFi Stadium behind them.
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United States vs Paraguay Match Preview
This is the fixture the United States cannot afford to treat lightly. Mauricio Pochettino’s side carry the weight of a sporting nation into every game this summer, and Matchday 2 against Paraguay is precisely the kind of game they must win to silence early doubters. Their March 2026 friendly losses to Belgium and Portugal raised questions about defensive solidity, but those were tune-up matches against elite European opposition. Paraguay, for all their discipline, are a different proposition.
For Paraguay, this is the most significant game their football program has played in sixteen years. Coach Gustavo Alfaro has built a compact, defensively reliable unit that qualified through CONMEBOL by grinding out results against the continent’s heavyweights. Their best finish at the World Cup remains the quarter-finals in 2010, and while few are predicting a similar run in 2026, arriving in Los Angeles with an upset result would transform the mood around this squad entirely.
The game will likely be decided in the spaces between Paraguay’s mid-block and the United States’ ability to press high and break lines quickly. Pochettino’s preferred style demands tempo, direct transitions, and central control. If Christian Pulisic and the midfield engine of Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie fire, Paraguay’s defensive organisation faces a serious examination. If the United States are impatient or careless, Alfaro’s side can make them pay on the counter.
Team Form
United States Recent Form
- Portugal (H): Lost 0-2 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Belgium (H): Lost 2-5 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Uruguay (H): Won 5-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- Paraguay (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- Australia (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly, October 2025)
The March 2026 results against Portugal and Belgium were sobering, with the 5-2 defeat to Belgium in particular exposing defensive vulnerability against top-level attacking pressure. Yet context matters: those are two of Europe’s strongest sides, and the United States’ autumn 2025 form, including a 5-1 dismantling of Uruguay, was considerably more convincing. The direct recent win over Paraguay gives this squad a concrete psychological edge heading into the group stage opener against the same opponent.
Paraguay Recent Form
- Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Mexico (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- United States (A): Lost 1-2 (Friendly, November 2025)
- South Korea (A): Lost 0-2 (Friendly, October 2025)
Paraguay’s last-five record is a patchwork of hard-fought results. The away win in Greece and the victory over Mexico show they are capable of grinding out victories, but losses to Morocco and South Korea confirm the ceiling. Their CONMEBOL qualifying run (3W 2D 1L in six matches reviewed) tells a more reassuring story: wins over Uruguay and Chile, a credible draw in Colombia, and a narrow loss away to Brazil. They know how to be difficult. Whether that is enough in Los Angeles is the central question.
United States vs Paraguay Head-to-Head
In nine previous meetings, the United States hold the upper hand. The most recent encounter, a November 2025 friendly in the United States, ended 2-1 to the hosts. Before that, the United States won 1-0 in a March 2018 friendly, and claimed a Copa America group-stage victory by the same scoreline in June 2016. Paraguay’s most notable result in this series was a 3-1 Copa America win in 2007, though that feels distant history now.
Critically, the United States have won three of the last four meetings between these sides. The one Paraguay win in that stretch came in a March 2011 friendly with a 1-0 scoreline. The head-to-head record does not tell the whole story of a genuinely tight rivalry, but it does confirm the United States’ recent dominance and provides genuine statistical backing for their United States vs Paraguay winner odds at the sportsbooks.
Team News
The United States head into the tournament with a full-strength squad announced. Christian Pulisic (Milan) leads the attack and enters the World Cup in strong club form, carrying 33 international goals from 86 caps as the team’s principal creative and scoring reference. Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) is expected to anchor the midfield press alongside Weston McKennie (Juventus), giving Pochettino his preferred box-to-box engine. Antonee Robinson (Fulham) provides dynamic width from left back, while Chris Richards (Crystal Palace) and Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati) are likely starters in central defense.
In goal, Matt Turner (New England Revolution) is the most experienced option with 54 caps, though Matt Freese (New York City FC) has pushed him hard for the starting spot. Up front, Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven) and Folarin Balogun (Monaco) offer contrasting striker profiles, with Pepi’s penalty-area instincts likely to make him the preferred starter. Sergiño Dest (PSV Eindhoven) adds attacking threat from right back.
Paraguay arrive without significant reported absences from their announced squad. Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras), the captain and defensive organiser with 89 caps, is fit and expected to lead the back line. Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United) brings creativity and transition energy in midfield, while Julio Enciso (Strasbourg) is the most dynamic attacking option. Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese) is expected to lead the line, with Enciso operating in support. Goalkeeper Gatito Fernández (Cerro Porteño) holds 31 caps and is the likely starter between the sticks.
Predicted Lineups
United States (4-3-3): Turner; Dest, C. Richards, M. Robinson, A. Robinson; Adams, McKennie, Tillman; Weah, Pepi, Pulisic (c)
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gatito Fernández; J.J. Cáceres, G. Gómez (c), Alderete, Alonso; Sosa, Cubas, D. Gómez, Almirón; Enciso, Sanabria
Predicted XIs – squads to be confirmed.
Key Tactical Matchup
The decisive duel runs through the middle of the pitch: Tyler Adams and the United States’ high-press against Paraguay’s counter-attacking transitions built around Miguel Almirón. Adams, with 54 caps and Pochettino’s trust as the defensive anchor, will look to compress Paraguay’s build-up and force them backwards. Almirón operates best when given space to run in behind a stretched defense, which means the tempo and positioning of the United States midfield directly controls how much of the game Paraguay can play on their own terms. If Adams and McKennie dominate the central zones, Paraguay’s route to goal is blocked. If they are bypassed, Almirón and Enciso become genuinely dangerous on the transition.
Best World Cup Bets
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Main Pick: United States to Win @ -104 (BetOnline)
The United States enter this fixture with three wins from the last four head-to-head meetings, including a direct 2-1 result over Paraguay just seven months ago. Home advantage at a sold-out SoFi Stadium, Pochettino’s attacking structure, and a squad loaded with European club-level talent all point the same way. Paraguay are disciplined but limited offensively, and the United States have the personnel to break down a mid-block repeatedly over 90 minutes.
Best Pick for Goals Market: Over 2 Goals @ -138 (BetOnline)
The United States have scored in four of their last five matches, including that 5-1 win over Uruguay and the 2-1 result over Paraguay in November 2025. Paraguay are not a blank-sheet side either, having scored in their wins over Greece and Mexico. The totals line sits at 2, and at -138, backing goals in a game where the hosts are expected to attack relentlessly and Paraguay need a result offers sound reasoning.
Scorer Market: Christian Pulisic Anytime Scorer
Pulisic enters as the United States’ most dangerous attacker with 33 international goals from 86 caps. Against a Paraguay side that concedes on the counter and through set-piece situations, his movement, technical quality, and direct running give him multiple routes to goal. He scored in the November 2025 meeting with Paraguay and will operate in the spaces Pochettino’s system is designed to exploit.
Best Value Betting Odds: Paraguay +335 to Win (BetNow)
For those looking at the United States vs Paraguay betting odds from a contrarian angle, Paraguay at +335 represents the market’s assessment of a genuine upset possibility. Alfaro’s record of building hard-to-beat sides is real, and the United States’ defensive performances against Belgium and Portugal in March 2026 were not reassuring. This is not a primary recommendation, but as a small-stake value play it carries merit for those comfortable with the risk.
Betting Odds Across Operators
Here is how the United States vs Paraguay betting odds compare across the three approved operators. The best available price on the United States is -104 at BetOnline and Lucky Rebel.
| Outcome | BetOnline | Lucky Rebel | BetNow |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Win | -104 | -104 | -105 |
| Draw | +230 | +218 | +250 |
| Paraguay Win | +320 | +290 | +295 |
How to Watch and How to Bet
How to Watch
In the United States, the match is broadcast live on Fox and Telemundo on June 12, 2026, with kickoff at 9:00 PM ET from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. International viewers can catch coverage on CTV, TSN and RDS in Canada, ITV and BBC in the United Kingdom, Globo and SporTV in Brazil, TyC Sports and TV Publica in Argentina, and ARD, ZDF and MagentaTV in Germany.
How to Bet
If you are new to betting on the World Cup, here is a simple step-by-step approach to getting on the United States vs Paraguay betting tips listed above.
- Choose one of the approved operators: BetOnline, Lucky Rebel, or BetNow.
- Create your account and verify your identity as required.
- Navigate to the soccer or international football section.
- Search for World Cup 2026 Group D fixtures and locate United States vs Paraguay.
- Select your preferred market (match result, totals, or anytime scorer).
- Enter your stake and review your bet slip carefully before confirming.
- Compare the odds across all three operators before placing, as prices can vary.
- Set a budget before you start and stick to it throughout the tournament.
Responsible Gambling
Responsible Gambling: Betting should be enjoyable and within your means. If you or someone you know is experiencing problems with gambling, help is available 24/7 by calling the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700, or by visiting the National Council on Problem Gambling. Additional support is available through Gamblers Anonymous. Always bet responsibly.
Luca Ferretti
When he is not breaking down match footage or tracking the form of clubs across Italy, Luca can usually be found in heated discussions about whether Italian football is genuinely back or just temporarily convincing everyone it is. He covers Serie A tactics, player form, and the broader culture of the Italian game for Footitalia.
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