Mateo Retegui’s move to Saudi Arabia means last season’s Capocannoniere winner will not be around to defend his crown. With that in mind, we analyze some of the leading names and best newcomers to the league, as well as the latest Serie A top scorer odds.
Who Will Win the Capocannoniere 2025-26?
Only one man managed to hit the 20-plus goal mark in Serie A season, and he has been lured by the riches of Saudi Arabia this summer.
Mateo Retegui was by far and away the most potent goalscorer in Italy last term, but his eyebrow-raising move to Al-Qadsiah has cleared the way for the league’s other marksmen to step forward.
Only Fiorentina’s Moise Kean came close to catching Retegui, albeit finishing runner-up in the top scorer race by a sizeable margin of six.
With the vast majority of the top half bolstering their squads in preparation for next season, it is worth putting teams under the microscope to see who is best equipped — not only with the best goalscorers, but also a supporting cast who can supply them.
From established Serie A goal-getters to league newcomers, FootItalia looks at the likeliest Capocannoniere candidates for 2025-26.
Best Newcomers
Evan Ferguson – Roma
Evan Ferguson’s breakout year in 2022-23 revealed a terrifying prospect. A complete striker in every sense; power, pace, technical ability, and most importantly, an inherent knack for finding the net.
Although the next two seasons have been plagued by injury and limited minutes — causing his market value to drop from a high of $75 million in 2023 — the Irishman is still only 20-years-old.
Roma’s unexpected pursuit of Ferguson actually makes perfect sense. New manager Gian Piero Gasperini has a penchant for picking up down-on-their-luck players and reigniting their careers. Just ask Ademola Lookman.
Just as Scott McTominay has at Napoli, Ferguson can test himself in a brand new environment, unshackled by the pressures of the Premier League.
If his four goals on his Roma debut are any indication of his readiness, then he could be one to cast a keen eye over as Roma enter a new era with one of Italy’s leading managers.
Jonathan David – Juventus
Jonathan David had long been linked with a move away from Lille, for whom he scored at least 15 goals per-season with, in all but one of his five Ligue 1 campaigns.
Juventus managed to bide their time and fend off heavy interest from the Premier League, in order to land a real coup this summer. They captured the signing of David on a free after his contract with Lille ran out, and he will be tasked with rejuvenating a blunted Juve attack upon arrival.
The Old Lady’s top scorer last season was Dusan Vlahovic, who managed just 10 goals across the campaign, whilst the likes of Kolo Muani offered goals few and far between.. With the Serbian continually linked with a move elsewhere, it befalls David to pick up the goalscoring mantle.
Juve have sought to provide the Canadian with a strong supporting cast, making Francisco Conceicao’s move permanent, while also adding Nico Gonzalez to the right wing.
Although David has never been as prolific as his 24 goal-campaign in 2022-23, he is decidedly consistent and should thrive in Serie A.
One to watch.
Noa Lang – Napoli
Although not a prolific goalscorer, there is plenty of scope for Noa Lang to excel at Napoli.
He arrives in Naples having scored 13 goals for PSV last season from a wide position, and it is not inconceivable to imagine a Scudetto-winning squad — bolstered by the arrival of Kevin De Bruyne — helping supply him with more opportunities.
Romelu Lukaku may spearhead Napoli’s attack, but he was also their main creative fulcrum last season, racking up 11 assists. Lang can feed off his fellow striker by running in behind, and should be the optimal partner for the Belgian up front.
The Usual Suspects
Lautaro Martinez — Inter Milan
Inter Milan may have added the irresistible Ange-Yoan Bonny from Parma to their attack this summer, but Lautaro Martinez remains their most dangerous threat.
The Argentine had a difficult campaign by his lofty standards, seeing his tally drop 12 year-on-year.
Martinez’s enduring self-belief will no doubt help him elevate his game to a level we have come to expect this coming season, and he remains offshore sportsbooks‘ favorite for the Serie A top scorer.
Cristian Chivu’s preference for high-pressing, hard-hitting counter-attacks should play into Martinez’s strengths, and the addition of the hugely creative Luis Henrique from Marseille on the wing should be a perfect accompaniment.
Moise Kean — Fiorentina
Despite plenty of noise surrounding Moise Kean’s future at Fiorentina, he appears closer to remaining put, with suggestions a new contract extension may even be tabled.
Kean has more than repaid Fiorentina’s faith in him since arriving last summer, and looks to have found a home in Florence after a turbulent start to his career.
The Italy international scored 19 goals in Serie A last season, bettered only by top scorer Retegui, and there is no reason to suggest he won’t be any less prolific next term.
Ademola Lookman — Inter Milan*
There is an asterisk next to Ademola Lookman since he is yet to complete his move from Atalanta, but it appears inevitable he will end up at the San Siro after Inter made their second bid this week.
It is a transfer that just makes total sense for all parties, but chiefly for Lookman.
He was, once again, hugely prolific for Atalanta in their push for Champions League qualification, netting 15 goals in Serie A from the left-wing.
It is difficult to imagine a world in which Lookman at Inter doesn’t work out. He has the individual brilliance to make sure he excels, and having a better team around him will only help to increase his goal tally.
Honourable Mentions
- Scott McTominay – Napoli
- Riccardo Orsolini – Bologna
- Romelu Lukaku – Napoli
- Marcus Thuram – Inter Milan
- Rafael Leao – AC Milan
