Why Does Serie A Have a Disproportionately High Amount of Goalless Draws?

Just 12 points separate league leaders Inter Milan and 10th-placed Atalanta, in what is turning out to be another competitive Serie A season across the table.

From the push for the Scudetto, right the way down to European hopefuls and relegation dwellers, Italy’s top-flight is jam-packed with concurrent storylines that reveal just how dog-eat-dog it has become.

This is the second consecutive year where each of the top five are separated by a single point at this stage; a phenomenon that had never occurred in the previous 30 seasons.

Beyond the top five, Como – who occupy the Europa Conference League spot in sixth – down to Torino in 13th represents a gap of just seven points.

With potentially significant matches every week and ramifications up and down the table, there is certainly an argument to be had that Serie A feels like the most competitive of Europe’s top five leagues.

This is, perhaps, best reflected in just how many draws there are in Serie A, particularly when compared to the rest of the continent.

Which of Europe’s Top Five Leagues Has the Most Draws?

As of December 30, Serie A ranks the highest for draws among Europe’s top five leagues.

There are plenty of conclusions as to why this may be; the gulf in quality between teams is smaller, or maybe even the homogenous cautionality of teams means they are naturally less likely to take risks.

That is no doubt an interesting take considering even the most attack-minded coach in the league, Gian Piero Gasperini, has undergone a stark evolution at Roma, who have conceded the fewest goals in Serie A.

According to Opta, teams near the summit this season have not only averaged more passes per sequence, but their direct speed upfield – measured in meters per second – is far lower.

It is interesting to note that the most direct team in Italy this season has been Hellas Verona, but they find themselves all the way down in 18th.

This would suggest the pace of the game in Italy is slower than the likes of the Bundesliga, which is characterized by rapid transitions and tactically loose defensive shapes.

Interestingly, the Bundesliga has seen 19 fewer draws than the Serie A so far this season, and 10 fewer goalless stalemates.

Why Does Serie A Have So Many Goalless Draws?

After 17 matchdays, Serie A’s tally of 18 goalless draws is alarmingly high.

Does this suggest Serie A is more competitive – and therefore lower scoring – or is it symptomatic of a wider problem with putting the ball in the net?

Matchday seven saw just 11 goals scored across 10 fixtures, of which there were four goalless draws. That set a new record for the fewest amount of goals scored in a single gameweek since Serie A adopted a 20-team league.

Serie A teams, on average, do appear to generate fewer Expected Goals (xG) than the rest of Europe. The Premier League, where teams have generated an average xG of 25.18 across 18 matchdays, ranks the highest, while Serie A ranks the lowest with just 21.55.

While fewer goals makes for less of a spectacle than competitions likes the Premier League, the tactical consensus of defensive discipline and risk aversion remains deep-rooted in Italy.

Gasperini, mentioned earlier for his penchant for attacking fluidity, largely swam against the status quo as he achieved a remarkable transformation at Atalanta, but his tactical philosophy is somewhat of an anomaly.

Serie A CEO Luigi De Siervo suggested that television piracy and illegal streaming are to blame for declining viewership, but appealing to a younger audience – who have been shown to have naturally shorter attention spans – may prove difficult if games are low-scoring or goalless.