The Underlying Stats That Suggest Cremonese Are a Ticking Time Bomb

Cremonese’s early-season form has seen them establish a cushty nine-point gap between themselves and the relegation zone, but worrying form of late could see them spiral.

Cremonese became only the second team to lose against struggling Fiorentina this season. 

Moise Kean’s injury-time winner on Sunday lifted La Viola off the bottom of the table for the first time this campaign, while Cremonese continued their slide.

This latest defeat pushes La Cremo further into the bottom half, having been sitting pretty in ninth at the beginning of December.

Just two wins in their previous nine is the kind of form that leaves a team short on confidence, and a fanbase fearing the worst.

Since matchday 10, only Pisa and Verona have collected as few points as Cremonese, and the underlying stats suggest this trajectory is set to continue.

Cremonese Have the Lowest xG in Serie A 

Despite Cremonese netting at a respectable rate of a goal-per-game, they are actually generating the lowest amount of Expected Goals (xG) in Serie A this season.

While xG fails to tell the whole story of why a team may be over or under performing, it is useful in uncovering whether chance creation is at a constant, or creativity has dried up.

In Cremonese’s case, they are actually overperforming slightly on their xG, which currently stands at an average of 0.97 per-game.

They are the only side in Serie A to average less than one xG per-90.

Despite some notable results against AC Milan and Bologna this campaign, they have only scored more than once in five of their 18 fixtures. 

It is also interesting to note that, alongside Napoli and Inter Milan, Cremonese have scored the joint-highest amount of headers in Serie A. There are two ways to look at this; they are no doubt mightily impressive in the air, but that means over 30 percent of their goals have come from via headers.

Jamie Vardy collected Serie A Player of the Month for November after rounding it off with two goals against Bologna, but if Cremonese’s creativity begins to dry up, the Englishman may find himself increasingly isolated. 

Vardy is typically a player who can fashion chances out of seemingly nothing, but without adequate service their woes in front of goal will continue to hamper their chances of a top-half finish.

They Have Also Conceded the Most xG in Serie A

Cremonese’s alarmingly low xG is compounded by the fact they have allowed the most opposition xG.

Not only are they struggling to generate chances, but they are also the most susceptible to conceding at an average of 1.81 xG per-90

Of course, the reality is nine other teams have conceded more goals than Cremonese, so for now they are keeping underlying stats at arm’s length.

How long this will continue also depends on whether opposition teams can take the chances they are afforded by Cremonese.

They face some testing fixtures in the weeks ahead, with two trips on the road against Juventus and a rapidly evolving Sassuolo, before welcoming the most fruitful team in the league in leaders Inter at the beginning of February.

Everything points to Cremonese’s slide down the table continuing, particularly with some of Serie A’s most in-form teams on the horizon.

Luckily for Davide Nicola, his side have managed to distance themselves enough from the threat of relegation to not feel immediately beleaguered, but the underlying stats reflect a team who are struggling at both ends of the pitch.