As the curtain draws on another campaign, the fascinating state of play in Italy means the title race, qualification to Europe and the battle for survival remain up in the air. Find Serie A permutations below, as we unpick some possible scenarios that could transpire before May 25.
Serie A Title Permutations
Inter Milan’s well-documented capitulation came at precisely the wrong moment in their season.
Consecutive 1-0 defeats in the league saw them relinquish a three-point lead in the blink of an eye, and they now find themselves scrambling to catch up with new leaders Napoli, who have established a lead of their own.
Antonio Conte and Gil Azzurri have snatched their chance to move clear with aplomb, although a spirited late comeback from Genoa last time out saw another twist in this absorbing title race, meaning the tantalising prospect of a winner-takes-it-all Serie A playoff is still very much on the cards.
Napoli’s 2-2 draw with Genoa leaves them just a point ahead of Inter, with bottom-half dwellers Parma and Cagliari on the horizon; both teams who have felt the wrath of Conte’s side already this season.
Inter Milan’s season has, of course, jumped back on the straight and narrow after a breathless semi-final victory against Barcelona, but they must overcome several taxing league fixtures if they are to stand a chance of catching up with the leaders.
Not least welcoming Lazio on the penultimate match day on May 18 — who are chasing European qualification themselves — while a sticky trip to Como, who are Europe’s most in-form team after riding a six-game win streak, could prove another bump in the road.
Inter’s Remaining Fixtures
- Inter vs Lazio (18th May)
- Como vs Inter (25th May)
Napoli’s Remaining Fixtures
- Parma vs Napoli (18th May)
- Napoli vs Cagliari (25th May)
Serie A European Qualification Permutations
You are unlikely to find a more captivating European qualification run-in than that of Serie A’s this season.
It is worth noting the finishing spots yield these rewards;
- Champions League: Positions one to four
- Europa League: Fifth place, Coppa Italia winners
- Conference League: Sixth place
Bologna’s historic Coppa Italia final triumph, ending a 51-year wait for silverware in the process, means Vincenzo Italiano’s side have secured qualification to the Europa League at least next season.
It is also worth noting how their placement in the league may affect rivals’ chances of playing on the continent next season.
Eventuality 1. Bologna finishes outside a European placement
- Positions 1-4 – Qualified for UEFA Champions League
- Positions 5 and Coppa Italia winner – Qualified for UEFA Europa League
- Position 6 – Qualification for UEFA Conference League playoff
Eventuality 2. Bologna get a European placement in Serie A
- Position 1-4 – Qualified for UEFA Champions League
- Position 5 and 6 – Qualified for UEFA Europa League
- Position 7 – Qualification for UEFA Conference League playoff
Napoli and Inter Milan have locked up their Champions League spots for next season, but as many as seven other teams could all theoretically qualify.
There are a whole host eventualities that could come to fruition over the final two matchdays, particularly with direct rivals facing each other, i.e Bologna going up against Fiorentina.
Serie A Relegation Permutations
Much like the top of the table, we could well see a playoff situation unfold at the close of play.
Hellas Verona beat Spezia 3-1 in 2022-23 to avoid dropping down to Serie B, and should 17th and 18th finish level on points, a similar match could be required.
Monza’s relegation back to Serie B, where they spent 40 consecutive seasons before 2022’s promotion, was confirmed on match day 34 after Atalanta put them to the sword with a four-goal drubbing.
From Cagliari in 14th, all the way down to Empoli, every team has a chance of facing relegation.
There are some hugely important fixtures between now and the end of the season, with Empoli face both Monza and Hellas in their final two fixtures.
Parma have arguably the hardest run of the bunch, Napoli and Atalanta on the horizon before the season draws to a close.
